Summary
Markets were mixed on the week as Treasury yields moved sharply higher, with the 10‑year rising +19bps to 4.13%, while U.S. equities showed uneven performance amid crosscurrents. The S&P 500 declined ‑0.71% WTD and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell ‑2.09%, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a +0.36% gain, as economic data continued to imply cooling but still stable growth, with inflation pressures contained but persistent, manufacturing activity remaining expansionary, consumer and housing indicators stabilizing, and labor market conditions resilient. Policy expectations remained cautious following comments from Fed President Barkin pointing to several months of elevated inflation and openness to balance sheet reduction, while commodities were volatile and uneven, with Bitcoin up +6.9%, the U.S. dollar stronger, gold and silver lower, and WTI crude a clear outlier after a sharp rally tied to escalating Middle East supply concerns.
10-Year Treasury Yield
- Current Rate: 4.13% (as of March 5, 2026)
- Week-to-Date Movement: +19bps (from 3.94% on February 27, 2026)
Major U.S. Equity Indices Performance
- S&P 500: 6,878.88 → 6,829.70 (-0.71% WTD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Avg: 48,977.92 → 47,954.74 (-2.09% WTD)
- Nasdaq Composite: 22,668.21 → 22,748.99 (+0.36% WTD)
Notable Market Events
Macroeconomic Data:
Recent U.S. economic releases continue to suggest growth is cooling modestly but remains on stable footing. Producer price data pointed to ongoing but contained inflation pressures, with January headline PPI rising +0.3% month over month and core PPI also up +0.3%, while year over year measures remained elevated, indicating cost pressures have not fully abated. Business activity surveys were mixed but generally expansionary, as S&P Global manufacturing PMI held above 50 at 51.4 and ISM manufacturing remained in expansion territory at 51.2, even as employment components softened. Consumer and housing-related indicators showed tentative improvement, with total vehicle sales rebounding to a 15.4 million annualized pace and MBA mortgage applications rising +2.7%, suggesting demand is stabilizing as rates ease from recent highs. Labor market conditions remain resilient, with initial jobless claims at 215k and continuing claims broadly steady, reinforcing the view that employment remains supportive of consumer activity despite signs of slower momentum.
Economic Policy:
On Thursday, Fed President Tom Barkin said the Federal Reserve’s response to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran will depend on the duration and magnitude of its impact on the U.S. economy. He noted that recent and expected data point to “a couple of months of relatively high inflation.” Barkin also said he looks forward to working with Kevin Warsh and suggested he may be receptive to Warsh’s proposals to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet in order to create room for future rate reductions. Fed officials meet March 17–18 and have signaled they are likely to hold rates steady for a second consecutive meeting as they await further progress on inflation. Meanwhile, futures tied to the Fed funds rate have pushed expectations for the 1st rate cut back to the September meeting.
Business:
Target (NYSE: TGT) shares advanced more than +6% on Tuesday after the company beat earnings estimates and indicated it may be poised to emerge from its recent sales slump. Broadcom (NYSE: AVGO) gained +2.5% on Thursday after delivering a constructive revenue outlook and noting that AI chip sales are expected to exceed $100 Billion by 2027. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) announced plans to reduce its global workforce by approximately 3%, with cuts focused across investment banking, trading, asset management, and wealth management. Nvidia (NYSE: NVDA) and AMD (NYSE: AMD) weighed on the technology sector Thursday amid reports that the Trump administration is preparing a rule that would restrict global AI chip shipments without U.S. approval. Separately, Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) plans to eliminate thousands of jobs as rising data center costs pressure margins.
Markets:
Commodities finished the week with less dispersion than the prior period, though performance remained uneven across asset classes. Bitcoin rebounded sharply, rising +6.86% after a weak March, while the U.S. dollar gained +1.30%. Gold and silver both began the week on firmer footing but reversed course, ending down ‑2.11% and ‑7.17%, respectively. WTI crude oil was once again the clear outlier, surging as much as +35% before settling up +9.76% amid escalating Middle East tensions that raised concerns over future supply, with knock‑on effects evident in the underperformance of oil‑import‑dependent markets such as South Korea.
Stock Sector Performance
All performance figures and market events are sourced from Bloomberg as of market close 2/19/2026, using the prior Friday’s market open as the start date.
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