Summary
Markets were modestly weaker on the week as Treasury yields declined, with the 10‑year falling ‑7bps to 4.01%, while U.S. equity performance remained subdued. The S&P 500 was essentially flat at ‑0.01% WTD, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell ‑0.26% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped ‑0.03%. Economic data continued to reflect a resilient but moderating backdrop, as December durable goods orders declined ‑1.4% on transportation weakness, though core orders rose +0.9%, personal income and spending increased, PMIs remained above 50, mortgage applications climbed +2.8%, and initial jobless claims stayed low. Policy expectations remained cautious following comments from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who emphasized inflation remains too elevated to justify near‑term rate cuts, reinforcing the Fed’s data‑dependent stance. Commodities were relatively contained but uneven, with gold up roughly +1.3%, silver slightly negative, the U.S. dollar strengthening about +4%, Bitcoin down nearly ‑3%, and WTI crude standing out with a sharp +13% rally tied to renewed geopolitical and supply‑side concerns.
10-Year Treasury Yield
- Current Rate: 4.01% (as of February 26, 2026)
- Week-to-Date Movement: -7bps (from 4.08% on February 20, 2026)
Major U.S. Equity Indices Performance
- S&P 500: 6,909.51 → 6,908.86 (-0.01% WTD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Avg: 49,625.97 → 49,499.20 (-0.26% WTD)
- Nasdaq Composite: 22,886.07 → 22,878.38 (-0.03% WTD)
Notable Market Events
Macroeconomic Data:
Recent U.S. economic data suggests growth is moderating but remains on solid footing. December durable goods orders declined -1.4%, largely due to volatility in transportation, while orders excluding transportation rose +0.9%, indicating businesses continue to invest in core equipment. Consumer conditions remain supportive, with personal income and spending both rising, even as inflation measures such as core PCE remain elevated but stable. Business surveys showed continued expansion, as manufacturing and services PMIs stayed above 50, pointing to ongoing economic growth early in the year. Housing signals improved modestly, with mortgage applications up +2.8% and building permits rising, suggesting activity may be stabilizing after a prolonged slowdown. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remained low, reinforcing the view that labor market strength continues to underpin consumer spending.
Economic Policy:
On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled a cautious stance on interest rates, emphasizing that inflation remains too high to justify near term cuts. He noted that while inflation has improved from its peak, progress has not been sufficient to confidently move policy lower. Goolsbee added that rate cuts later in the year are still possible, but warned against moving too quickly before there is clearer evidence inflation is returning toward the Fed’s 2% target. Overall, his comments reinforced the message that the Federal Reserve remains patient and firmly guided by incoming data rather than market expectations.
Business:
Nvidia (NYSE: NVDA) shares declined -5.4% despite delivering a strong top and bottom line earnings beat. Data center revenue grew +75% year over year, though results fell short of estimates in the Automotive, Gaming, and Compute segments, and investors expressed concern around the pace and scale of the company’s AI infrastructure buildout. Block (NYSE: SQ) announced plans to lay off more than 4,000 employees, which is approximately half of its workforce, as part of a broader restructuring effort. Meanwhile, GLP‑1 drug maker Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) said it will cut U.S. prices for its obesity and diabetes treatments by up to 50% beginning in 2027. CoreWeave (NYSE: CRWV) shares fell more than -4% overnight Thursday after the company reported a wider‑than‑expected loss amid increased quarterly spending
Markets:
Commodities posted a relatively contained but uneven week, with performance diverging across assets. Precious metals were mixed, with gold modestly higher at roughly +1.3% while silver finished essentially flat, slightly negative on the week. The U.S. dollar strengthened meaningfully, rising about +4%, which likely acted as a headwind for parts of the commodity complex. Risk assets continued to struggle, as Bitcoin extended its recent downtrend, falling close to -3% over the period. The clear standout was energy, with WTI crude oil surging more than +13% on the week, sharply outperforming other commodities as geopolitical concerns and supply‑side risks resurfaced.
Stock Sector Performance
All performance figures and market events are sourced from Bloomberg as of market close 2/19/2026, using the prior Friday’s market open as the start date.
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