Summary
Markets were broadly weaker on the week as U.S. equities declined amid a hawkish Federal Reserve tone and persistent geopolitical crosscurrents. The S&P 500 fell -0.39% WTD, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -1.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite proved relatively resilient with a modest -0.07% pullback, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased -3bps to 4.25%. PPI came in hotter than expected at +0.7% month over month, and the Fed held rates steady at the March FOMC meeting, revising its headline and core PCE outlook higher to +2.7% while the dot plot signaled just one cut this year, prompting traders to price out near term rate reductions. On the corporate front, Micron surged on a strong earnings beat driven by AI chip demand, Nvidia projected $1 trillion in AI processor sales by 2027, and Five Below soared over +10% on a top and bottom line beat, while Alibaba slumped on capital spending concerns. Commodities remained turbulent for the third consecutive week, with WTI crude slumping -13% following progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Gold and Silver retreated -13.1% and -8.3% respectively to cap off another volatile week across markets.
10-Year Treasury Yield
- Current Rate: 4.25% (as of March 19, 2026)
- Week-to-Date Movement: -3bps (from 4.28% on March 13, 2026)
Major U.S. Equity Indices Performance
- S&P 500: 6,632.19 → 6,606.49 (-0.39% WTD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Avg: 46,558.47 → 46,021.43 (-1.15% WTD)
- Nasdaq Composite: 22,105.36 → 22,090.69 (-0.07% WTD)
Notable Market Events
Macroeconomic Data:
PPI data came in hotter than expected, rising +0.7% month over month against an estimate of +0.3%, while Core PPI climbed +3.9% year over year, above the +3.7% consensus. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held rates steady in the 3.50% to 3.75% range at the March FOMC meeting. On the housing front, New Home Sales and Building Permits declined -17.6% and -4.7% respectively month over month, though Pending Home Sales offered a modest bright spot, rising +1.8% over the same period. MBA Mortgage Applications fell -10.9% for the week ending March 13th, with refinancing activity sliding roughly -19%. On a more constructive note, Initial Jobless Claims improved to 205,000 from 213,000 the prior week.
Economic Policy:
Yields were volatile on the week as rising oil prices and a hawkish Fed tone weighed on equity indices into Wednesday’s close. The dot plot, which reflects individual Fed members’ rate projections, pointed to one reduction this year and another in 2027, though the timing of each remains uncertain. Officials revised their inflation outlook higher, with both headline and core PCE now projected at +2.7% for the year, though they expect inflation to gradually retreat toward the 2% target in the years ahead as the impacts of tariffs and the conflict fade. Following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, traders moved to price out rate cuts by year end.
Business:
Shares of Micron (NYSE: MU) advanced +0.40% on Thursday following a strong earnings beat, as the company benefited from a memory supply shortage driven by surging demand for Nvidia’s AI chips, with revenue nearly tripling in the latest quarter and guidance sailing past expectations. Nvidia (NYSE: NVDA) shares were largely unchanged after the company projected $1 trillion in AI processor sales by 2027 at its annual GTC conference. Lululemon (NYSE: LULU) jumped nearly +4% despite issuing soft guidance for fiscal 2026, as investors focused on the underlying strength of the print. Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) slumped over -7% following blowout earnings, as a significant ramp in capital spending raised concerns about the company’s near-term profitability outlook. Shares of Five Below (NYSE: FIVE) soared over +10% after delivering a top and bottom line beat alongside an optimistic first quarter guide.
Markets:
Commodities continued to face heightened volatility for the third consecutive week as tensions in the Middle East remained elevated. WTI crude slumped -13% after Israel signaled its commitment to supporting U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Gold and Silver retreated -13.1% and -8.3% respectively in the wake of the move in oil prices, while the DXY slipped -0.55% to cap off another turbulent week across commodity markets.
Stock Sector Performance
All performance figures and market events are sourced from Bloomberg as of market close 2/19/2026, using the prior Friday’s market open as the start date.
5404 Wisconsin Ave., Suite 330, Chevy Chase MD, 20815
(301) 799-9001
General Disclosure
This Presentation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or investment product or services. The content of this Presentation is provided solely for your personal use and shall not be deemed to provide access to any particular transaction or investment opportunity.
This investment strategy is based on a model portfolio developed by Dynasty Wealth Management, LLC (“Model provider”), a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. TritonPoint Wealth retains full discretion over the implementation, customization, and management of client accounts using this model. The Model provider does not manage client accounts, does not provide individualized investment advice, and is not responsible for investment decisions, performance outcomes, or suitability determinations. The Model provider receives compensation from the underlying investments. Outsourcing costs range from 2 – 4 bps (program fee) and can be discounted based on assets under management. Outsourcing includes investment management, trading, billing, and communications.
TritonPoint Wealth (TPW) does not intend the information in this Presentation to be investment advice, and the information presented in this Presentation should not be relied upon to make an investment decision. Any third-party information contained herein was prepared by sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.
TPW is a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission providing investment advisory and financial planning services. Any reference to the terms “registered investment adviser” or “registered” does not imply that TPW or any person associated with TritonPoint Wealth has achieved a certain level of skill or training. A copy of TPW’s current written disclosure (ADV 2A Firm Brochure) discussing our advisory services and fees is available for your review upon request. TPW, in addition to providing investment advisory and financial planning services, provides business consulting services. In connection with its business consulting services, TPW does not provide tax or legal advice.
This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, modified, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from TPW. TPW reserves the right, at any time and without notice, to amend, or cease publication of the information contained herein. Certain of the information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources and has not been independently verified. It is made available on an “as is” basis without warranty. Any recommendations, projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.