Summary
Markets were broadly weaker on the week as Treasury yields continued to move higher, with the 10‑year rising +11bps to 4.25%, while U.S. equities declined amid mounting macro and geopolitical crosscurrents. The S&P 500 fell ‑0.75% WTD and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined ‑1.61%, while the Nasdaq Composite proved relatively resilient with a smaller ‑0.23% pullback. Incoming economic data increasingly pointed to a deceleration in growth, as February labor reports showed a notable contraction in payrolls despite a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, while inflation continued to cool gradually with headline CPI easing to 2.4% year over year. Policy expectations grew more cautious as surging crude prices tied to escalating Middle East tensions complicated the Fed’s inflation outlook, prompting markets to price out near‑term rate cuts ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Commodity performance reflected heightened geopolitical risk, with the U.S. dollar strengthening, Bitcoin stabilizing near flat at roughly +1%, gold modestly lower, and WTI crude standing out sharply with a +22.8% surge, supporting energy equities even as most equity sectors traded lower for the week.
10-Year Treasury Yield
- Current Rate: 4.25% (as of March 12, 2026)
- Week-to-Date Movement: +11bps (from 4.14% on March 6, 2026)
Major U.S. Equity Indices Performance
- S&P 500: 6,740.02 → 6,689.49 (-0.75% WTD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Avg: 47,501.55 → 46,737.11 (-1.61% WTD)
- Nasdaq Composite: 22,387.68 → 22,337.25 (-0.23% WTD)
Notable Market Events
Macroeconomic Data:
Incoming U.S. data over the past week point to a clearer deceleration in growth, though broader conditions remain stable. February labor data weakened meaningfully, with nonfarm payrolls declining by -92k and private payrolls down -86k, signaling cooling hiring momentum, even as the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent and claims remained contained near 213k. Inflation continued to ease at a gradual pace, with February CPI rising +0.3 percent month over month, core CPI up +0.2 percent, and year over year measures moderating to 2.4 percent headline and 2.5 percent core. Consumer and housing indicators were mixed but showed early signs of stabilization, as retail sales posted modest gains and mortgage applications rebounded sharply, suggesting demand may be responding to lower rates despite softer sentiment.
Economic Policy:
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have clouded the macro backdrop, with rising oil prices posing a fresh challenge to the Fed’s inflation objectives. As crude surges past $100 per barrel, traders have begun pricing out year-end rate cuts, leaving the timing of the first reduction increasingly uncertain. The Fed convenes on the 18th and is widely expected to hold rates steady, with markets closely watching for any commentary on the path forward.
Business:
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) surged +9% on Wednesday after reporting a +44% year-over-year increase in cloud revenue and reassuring analysts that the company has no plans to raise additional debt in 2026 beyond what was previously announced. Airlines (NYSE: JETS) retreated over the week as rising oil prices and headwinds from restricted international travel weighed on the sector. Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) edged up +1% following better-than-expected holiday season earnings, though weak profit guidance tempered enthusiasm as the pending Foot Locker acquisition pressured its bottom line. Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) tumbled -6% on Thursday after disclosing a $30 billion exposure to private credit — an asset class facing mounting pressure from fund redemptions, heightened scrutiny of underwriting standards, and the disruptive impact of AI on software-sector borrowers.
Markets:
Commodity markets were increasingly driven by geopolitical risk, with price action reflecting a rapid repricing of supply security rather than broad based macro trends. Bitcoin stabilized following recent weakness, trading roughly flat to modestly higher at around +1% on a normalized basis, while the U.S. dollar strengthened, with DXY up approximately +0.4%. Precious metals failed to sustain early strength, with gold drifting lower by roughly ‑0.2% and silver underperforming at about +2.9%, suggesting that safe haven demand softened despite escalating headlines tied to the conflict involving Iran. Oil remained the clear outlier, with WTI elevated by roughly +22.8% as markets continued to price in heightened supply risk, reinforcing pressure on oil import dependent economies while supporting energy linked assets.
Stock Sector Performance
All performance figures and market events are sourced from Bloomberg as of market close 2/19/2026, using the prior Friday’s market open as the start date.
5404 Wisconsin Ave., Suite 330, Chevy Chase MD, 20815
(301) 799-9001
General Disclosure
This Presentation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or investment product or services. The content of this Presentation is provided solely for your personal use and shall not be deemed to provide access to any particular transaction or investment opportunity.
This investment strategy is based on a model portfolio developed by Dynasty Wealth Management, LLC (“Model provider”), a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. TritonPoint Wealth retains full discretion over the implementation, customization, and management of client accounts using this model. The Model provider does not manage client accounts, does not provide individualized investment advice, and is not responsible for investment decisions, performance outcomes, or suitability determinations. The Model provider receives compensation from the underlying investments. Outsourcing costs range from 2 – 4 bps (program fee) and can be discounted based on assets under management. Outsourcing includes investment management, trading, billing, and communications.
TritonPoint Wealth (TPW) does not intend the information in this Presentation to be investment advice, and the information presented in this Presentation should not be relied upon to make an investment decision. Any third-party information contained herein was prepared by sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.
TPW is a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission providing investment advisory and financial planning services. Any reference to the terms “registered investment adviser” or “registered” does not imply that TPW or any person associated with TritonPoint Wealth has achieved a certain level of skill or training. A copy of TPW’s current written disclosure (ADV 2A Firm Brochure) discussing our advisory services and fees is available for your review upon request. TPW, in addition to providing investment advisory and financial planning services, provides business consulting services. In connection with its business consulting services, TPW does not provide tax or legal advice.
This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, modified, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from TPW. TPW reserves the right, at any time and without notice, to amend, or cease publication of the information contained herein. Certain of the information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources and has not been independently verified. It is made available on an “as is” basis without warranty. Any recommendations, projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.