Summary
Equities declined across the board this week, with the Dow down −0.82%, the S&P 500 −0.49%, and the Nasdaq −0.25%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose +3 basis points to 5.23%. Economic data was mixed. Consumer confidence fell to 81.9 and JOLTS job openings dipped to 7.08 million, though ADP payrolls beat with a 90,000 gain and jobless claims held at 197,000. Core PCE held at 3.0% year-over-year, below estimates, and second-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2%. On policy, Fed officials were split, with Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams signaling hikes can wait while several others called for more tightening; markets are pricing at least a ~60% chance of another hike by the December 9 FOMC meeting. Among individual names, Accenture (ACN) rose 18% on strong fiscal Q4 results and Micron (MU) gained 3% on an earnings beat, while Nike (NKE) fell nearly 10% after missing revenue estimates and unveiling a restructuring plan. Spot gold and silver fell −2.5% and −5.14%, respectively, while crude oil added +0.5%. On currencies, Bitcoin rose +0.88% and the dollar gained +1.11%.
10-Year Treasury Yield
- Current Rate: 5.23% (as of October 1, 2026)
- Week-to-Date Movement: +3bps (from 5.20% on September 24, 2026)
Major U.S. Equity Indices Performance
- S&P 500: 7,704.13 → 7,666.45 (-0.49% WTD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Avg: 51,349.98 → 50,926.56 (-0.82% WTD)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,939.37 → 26,871.60 (-0.25% WTD)
Notable Market Events
Macroeconomic Data:
Data was busy on the week, with inflation, labor, and manufacturing in focus. MBA Mortgage Applications fell −6.0% for the week ending September 25th, following a −1.5% decline the prior week. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 81.9 from a revised 88.6, well below the 89.0 estimate, as expectations weakened to 63.6. JOLTS Job Openings slipped to 7.08 million in August, below the 7.23 million estimate, while ADP Employment rose 90,000 against a 75,000 estimate. Initial jobless claims held at 197,000 for the week ending September 26th as the labor market remained stable. August Core PCE rose 3.0% year-over-year, below the 3.3% estimate, though in line with July’s revised reading. Second quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%. The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 54.5, just under the 55.0 estimate, while ISM Prices Paid rose to 77.9 from 71.1. The final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was 55.9, below the 57.0 flash reading.
Economic Policy:
Fed commentary was mixed this week. Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams, two of the top three Fed officials, suggested further hikes can wait and there isn’t an immediate sense of urgency to act. However, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, Governors Barr and Cook, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid said more tightening is needed to bring inflation down. Dallas Fed President Logan also backed 50 bps of hikes, though she acknowledged rising yields may reduce the need for tightening. Markets see rates as likely unchanged at the October meeting, but with at least a ~60% chance of another hike, to 4.00%-4.25%, by the December 9 FOMC meeting.
Business:
Notable moves this week include: 1) Accenture (ACN) gained 18% on Thursday on better-than-expected fiscal Q4 revenue and earnings; 2) Micron (MU) rose 3% the same day after an earnings beat and strong guidance, with data center revenue up roughly 11x year over year; and 3) Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.5% on Monday after authorizing an additional $150 billion in share buybacks, bringing its total remaining authorization to $235 billion through January 2028. However, Nike (NKE) shares fell nearly 10%, their lowest level since 2013, after revenue missed estimates and the company announced “Pace,” a new restructuring plan that includes layoffs beginning in 2027.
Markets:
Commodities finished the week mixed. Precious metals finished lowerweak, with spot gold and silver down −2.5% and −5.14%, respectively. Crude oil rose +0.5% after experiencing volatility mid-week due to continued tensions in the Middle East. Bitcoin rose by +0.88% and the dollar rallied +1.11%.
Stock Sector Performance
All performance figures and market events are sourced from Bloomberg as of market close 10/1/2026, using the prior Friday’s market open as the start date.
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